![]() Of course, star players have a big influence on the outcome of a game, but the extent of their influence can be distorted. Plenty of people backed the Cavaliers to beat the Warriors last season for one reason only – LeBron James. Something as simple as recognizing a star player can be hugely important in determining how the public bets. Pay especially close attention to short term history to see if playing at home is really helping them and how much. While it’s true that statistically playing at home is a big advantage, make sure to do the research and see what that particular team’s results say. In team sports like football, hockey, and basketball, home advantage is usually a big factor that influences public opinion. The more famous a team, the more action there will be on them. Casual fans are likely to be influenced by their basic knowledge about a team or sport, betting on reputation rather than probability. Higher profile teams are much more likely to be bet on more heavily by the public. People are easily influenced by the dominant media narrative and public opinion has a way of snowballing. The media can play a big role if they are hyping up one outcome over another. Here are some common ones to look out for: The Media Narrative If you can identify spots where most people’s opinions are being influenced by other factors it can be a great opportunity to bet against the public. Popular opinion can be shaped by lots of different factors and not all of them are based on hard facts. Not only is this a good opportunity to fade the public if you think they’re wrong, but you can also get even better odds since the casino is trying to make the less popular side of the bet more enticing. Moving betting lines is a very good indicator that most of the public is betting one way. When the majority of the betting public wagers on one side too heavily, the sportsbook will often adjust the lines and odds to make the other side more appealing. In order to minimize their risk, sportsbooks always want to have a roughly equal amount of action on both sides of a bet. If you think public perception is off, which statistically speaking it generally is, you should bet on the opposite outcome. Whichever side of the bet has the most action (that is, the most money being bet on it) represents the prevailing public perception. There are tons of bets like this available on every game, in every sport. ![]()
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